GWS 2024: Where did everyone go?
By Jon Freitag
Data from the 2024 Great Wargaming Survey (GWS) is in! Having converted the data file from Excel and recoded many of the variables into more analytics friendly forms, analysis can begin in earnest.
After a quick summarization and cursory glance at the data, one surprise pops up immediately. That is: responses to the 2024 survey saw a significant drop in participation. With 9,282 responses in 2023, the 2024 survey received only 5,995 responses. Still a respectable sample size but why the 2024 survey saw a 35% reduction in responses is, for now, a puzzle. We can speculate on contributing factors but perhaps exploring these data can provide clues? Will this drop in numbers skew or distort the parade of analyses planned for the 2024 survey reporting cycle? As a first entry in this annual procession, I kick off the series of analyses with a look at data reliability and how a handful of select demographic statistics compare from 2023 to 2024.
On Reliability of Data
Even with the non-scientific nature of data collection, the GWS has shown consistency in response results year in and year out. That result, in itself, may surprise some. Past analyses have examined data reliability topic and a topic I return to frequently. With a drop in responses, will these results and trends from past years still hold true for 2024? Some may and some may not. I suppose that we will discover this answer as we work our way through the 2024 survey questions over the next ten months. To start, let us lay the groundwork and begin with a look at the most common attributes, a selection of respondent demographics.
Location
The mix of respondents' home countries remains consistent from 2023 to 2024. A few more respondents originated in USA/Canada and Continental Europe/Scandinavia at the expense of UK/Ireland respondents but no significant change in the overall distribution.
Age Group
When examining age demographics, a distinct shift in age cohort emerges. In 2024, every age group in the 41 and higher groups lost respondents. Every age group in the 40 and under cohorts gained ground. The 2024 survey shows a seven-percentage point shift toward the 40 and under groups. An anomaly due to reduced response rates or a harbinger of things to come?
Education
On the question of highest education level attained, results remain consistent between 2023 and 2024. No significant difference with respect to education.
Primary Interest
With an age group shift to the 40 and under cohorts, one might expect to see a shift to a more fantasy/sci-fi primary wargaming interest. This is exactly the result that the breakdown of primary interest shows. From 2023 to 2024, there is a four-percentage point shift to the Fantasy/Sci-Fi classification. What may be a surprise is that this shift toward fantasy/sci-fi draws from the "Mixed" classification and not the Historical grouping. No shift out of Historicals into Mixed. The Historicals grouping remains at 28% in both 2023 and 2024 surveys.
Duration
Finally, when examining responses to how long a respondent has been a wargamer, the results are not surprising given the observed shifts in age and primary interest. The percentage of gamers having been in the hobby for 31 years or more fell by six percentage points from 2023 to 2024. While the 31 years plus group fell in total percentage, the percentage of primarily historical wargamers remains steady at 28%. Are some wargamers shifting from either Mixed or Fantasy/Sci-Fi preferences to Historicals? These data suggest this might be the case.
The main question coming to mind is, obviously: why the sudden drop off in responses? Where did everyone go? While we may never know any precise answer, I wonder if any of these suggestions could pose contributing factors?
- A trend toward disengaging from social media in general.
- Reduced advertising.
- Distractions elsewhere in the world.
- A busy August.
- Survey fatigue.
- IT survey capture glitch losing thousands of responses.
- Graying (and ultimately exiting) of the hobby
- Not enough incentive (freebies) to complete the survey.
I would enjoy seeing your thoughts on why fewer gamers completed the survey and/or the demographic attributes of the GWS Class of 2024.
Having laid the groundwork with a demographics profile, many of the survey’s wargaming specific questions remain to be explored. Along with many of the standard questions, a few new questions appear in the 2024 edition too.
11 comments
Didn’t see it advertised and didn’t fill it out as a result
There did seem to be less advertising for the survey this year. I suspect that there was also a lot of “I’ll fill that in later” and then just forgetting about it too.
It could be that it was due to the elections which were world wide, that was quite distracting. Economics could also, this year was pretty hard all around.
Didn’t know the survey was available. Last year there seemed to be more notice given.
I answered this year as I did couple of times before, but I think the survey was less advertised than before. I believe my social media activity has been quite constant, but may be the algorithms changed?
I completed the GWS 2024, as it was in an email newsletter. I don’t use social media anymore and I am happier for it.
I don’t follow social media other than a few specific Facebook groups around gaming, model making and illustration, never have. I got my notification through the e-mail update. Those of us in the older categories probably don’t bother much with social media and just missed the notification, or just forgot.